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Philip Enterprises, distributor of compact disks (CDs), is developing its budgeted cost of goods sold. Philip has developed the following range of sales estimates and associated probabilities for the year: Philip’s cost of goods sold averages 80% of sales. What is the expected value of Philip’s budgeted cost of goods sold?
70-743 exam Correct Answer: D
The expected value is calculated by weighting each sales estimate by the probability of itsoccurrence. Consequently, the expected value of sales is US $84,000 [$60,000 x .25) + ($85,000 x .40) + ($100,000 x .35)]. Cost of goods sold is therefore US $67,200 ($84,000 x 80%).
The College Honor Society sells hot pretzels at the home football games. The pretzels are sold for $1.00 each, and the cost per pretzel is $.30. Any unsold pretzels are discarded because they will be stale before the next home game. The frequency distribution of the demand for pretzels per game is presented as follows: Unit Sales VolumeProbability
The estimated demand for pretzels at the next home football game using an expected value approach is:
A. 4.000 pretzels.
B. 4.400 pretzels.
C. 5,000 pretzels.
D. None of the answers are correct.
Correct Answer: B
The calculation using an expected value approach weights each possible sales volume by its probability. Thus, the estimated demand is 4,400 pretzels.
The College Honor Society sells hot pretzels at the home football games. The pretzels are sold for $1.00 each, and the cost per pretzel is $.30. Any unsold pretzels are discarded because they will be stale before the next home game. The frequency distribution of the demand for pretzels per game is presented as follows: Unit Sales Volume Probability
2,000 pretzels .10
3,000 pretzels .15
4,000 pretzels .20
5.000 pretzels .35
6.000 pretzels .20
The estimated demand for pretzels at the next home football game using a deterministic approach based on the most likely outcome is:
A. 4,000 pretzels.
B. 4,400 pretzels.
C. 5.000 pretzels.
D. 6,000 pretzels.
70-743 dumps Correct Answer: C
A deterministic approach assumes that a value is known with certainty. If that value is deemed to be the most likely outcome, assumed demand will be 5,000 pretzels, the volume with the highest probability (35%).
As part of a risk analysis, an auditor wishes to forecast the percentage growth in next month’s sales for a particular plant using the past 30 months” sales results. Significant changes in the organization affecting sales volumes were made within the last 9 months. The most effective analysis technique to use would be:
A. Unweighted moving average.
B. Exponential smoothing.
C. Queuing theory.
D. Linear regression analysis.
Correct Answer: B
Under exponential smoothing, each forecast equals the sum of the last observation times the smoothing constant, plus the last forecast times one minus the constant. Thus, exponential means that greater weight is placed on the most recent data, with the weights of all data falling off exponentially as the data age. This feature is important because of the organizational changes that affected sales volume.
A plumbing company, a wholesale distributor, supplies plumbing contractors and retailers throughout the Northeast on a next-day delivery basis. The company has a centrally located warehouse to accept receipts of plumbing supplies. The warehouse has a single dock to accept and unload railroad freight cars during the night. It takes 5 hours to unload each freight car. The company’s prior records indicate that the number of freight cars that arrive in the course of a night range from zero to five or more, with no indicated pattern of arrivals. If more than two freight cars arrive on the same night, some freight must be held until the next day for unloading. The company wants to estimate the wait time when more than two freight cars arrive in the same night. The appropriate technique to analyze the arrival of freight cars is:
A. Integer programming
B. Linear programming
C. Monte Carlo simulation.
D. Regression analysis
70-743 pdf Correct Answer: C
Monte Carlo simulation is often used in computer modeling to generate the individual values for a random variable. The performance of a quantitative model under uncertainty may be investigated by randomly selecting values for each variable in the model (based on the probability distribution of each variable) and then calculating the value of the solution. If this process is performed many times, the distribution of results from the model will be obtained.
Through the use of decision models, managers thoroughly analyze many alternatives and decide on the best alternative for the company. Often the actual results achieved from a particular decision are not what was expected when the decision was made In addition, an alternative that was not selected would have actually been the best decision for the company. The appropriate technique to analyze the alternatives by using expected inputs and altering them before a decision is made is:
A. Expected value analysis.
B. Linear programming.
C. Program evaluation review technique (PERT).
D. Sensitivity analysis.
Correct Answer: D
After a problem has been formulated into any mathematical model, it may be subjected to sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis examines how the model’s outcomes change as the parameters change.
A firm is attempting to estimate its allowance for doubtful accounts. The probabilities of these doubtful accounts follow a transition process over time. They evolve from their starting value to a changed value. As such, the most effective technique to analyze the problem is:
A. Markov chain analysis.
B. Econometric theory.
C. Monte Carlo analysis.
D. Dynamic programming.
70-743 vce Correct Answer: A
A Markov chain is a series of events in which the probability of an event depends on the immediately preceding event. An example is the game of blackjack in which the probability of certain cards being dealt is dependent upon what cards have already been dealt. In the analysis of bad debts, preceding events, such as collections, credit policy changes, and writeoffs, affect the probabilities of future losses.
A chief executive officer (CEO) believes that a major competitor may be planning a new campaign. The CEO sends a questionnaire to key personnel asking for original thinking concerning what the new campaign may be. The CEO selects the best possibilities and then sends another questionnaire asking for the most likely option. The process employed by the CEO is called the:
A. Least squares technique
B. Delphi technique.
C. Maximum likelihood technique.
D. Optimizing of expected payoffs.
Correct Answer: B
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